Blazer Draft Thoughts

After every draft, no matter the sport, expert and talking heads will come out with their grades. This concept is funny to me because, unless I'm missing something, one cannot see the future. For example, let's look back at the 2001 NBA draft. The Washington Wizards received a B from Sport Illustrated for Kwame Brown. Minnesota walked away with an A- for Loren Woods. Meanwhile the Hawks get an A for trading away the chance to draft Pau Gasol for Shareef Abdul-Rahim. The Grizzlies somehow got Pau Gasol and Shane Battier and wind up with a B- for their efforts.

A year later, ESPN gave the Bulls an A for Jay Williams, Roger Mason Jr and Lonnie Baxter. The Cavs managed a D despite picking up Carlos Boozer. I could go on and on with examples, but that would be incredibly boring. Instead, I'm just going to look at who the Blazers picked up in the draft and look at how they might fit in. I won't attempt to grade it before they hit the court, just like teachers don't trade papers before looking at the student's answers.

Damion Lillard.

This might be one of the worst kept secret ever. It seemed that every Portland media outlet predicted it, national media predicted it; Paul Allen even had dinner with him. The pick itself made a ton of sense. This past season the Blazers were plagued with poor point guard play, or rather, really poor play by everyone not named LaMarcus Aldridge. Last season they traded popular but aging point guard Andre Miller for Raymond Felton and drafted Duke point guard Nolan Smith. Raymond Felton was, to put it simply, a disaster. He came into camp out of shape and never played himself into shape. His play showed marked improvement after Nate McMillian was fired, but his PER still the worst in his career. His assists were down, his field goal shooting was down and his three point shooting was down. Rookie Nolan Smith didn't provide much in the way of depth. His PER was a meager 7.8, he shot under 40% from the field and under 30% from downtown.

With Nolan Smith the only point guard on the roster, it was clear that that was a position of need. To make the selection even easier for the Blazers, he absolutely nailed his private workout with the team. The upside to this pick is clear; the guy has good size for his position, very athletic and a terrific shooter. Matt Kamalsky of Draft Express did a statistical analysis of Lillard:

Damian Lillard on the other hand, looks extremely good in this analysis and ranks exceptionally across the board, finishing second in overall efficiency (1.142 PPP) despite using 21.1 possessions per-game (1st). Getting to the line on 18.7% of his possessions (4th) and scoring 1.176 point per-jump shot (1.176)...The most efficient guard in pick and roll (1.039 PP), spot-up (1.388), and isolation off screen situations (1.324), Lillard dominates most categories in this study. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Lillard's showing on paper is the paltry 9.8% turnover rate he posted despite teams game planning to stop him on a nightly basis.

Detractors of the pick will note the poor level of play Lillard had going against Sky Conference foes, a conference that had less prospects than North Carolina in this draft. His age is another factor; while most players in this draft and 19 and 20, Damion will be 22 by the time the season starts. Is it a huge difference? No, but it does shorten the learning curve at a tough position to master at the NBA level. A knock on him is his passing ability, but one might be able to use the bad conference argument here and say he didn't have the team mates to pass to.

Meyers Leonard

Another glaring weakness for the Blazers was a big. LaMarcus Aldridge is an all star caliber player, but once you get passed him the cupboard is pretty bare. Joel Przybilla and Kurt Thomas are nice players, but are limited with their age in terms of ability and minutes. JJ Hickson had a nice stretch at the end of the season, but looking at the rest of the year, you could claim it as an aberration. His defense is rather poor as well. Craig Smith and Hasheem Thabeet couldn't crack the rotation of team that was tanking.

While a big was obviously a need, what kind of big was key. While Aldridge is known as a power forward, he played center for large portions of the past two seasons and was very effective. Zach Lowe of Sports Illustrated argued that the Blazers would be better off with Aldridge as the full time center as appose to the power forward.

Small lineups
1,406.28 minutes
114.6 points per 100 possessions
106.05 points allowed per 100 possessions
Big lineups
1,470.59 minutes
108.1 points per 100 possessions
105.5 points allowed per 100 possessions

While slightly worse on defense, the team is much improved on offense. If the Blazers wanted to go this route, then the players that made the most sense were Thomas Robinson and Jerrod Sullinger. Sullinger's medical issues took him out of the running and while Thomas Robinson was taken before the Blazers were on the clock, trading up was certainly a possibility.
In the end, the Blazers decided to keep Aldridge at the 4 and take 7'1'' center Meyers Leonard from Illinois. Meyers is very athletic for a big man, in terms of lateral movement and vertical jumping. He will need to get stronger, but his length and athleticism is intriguing.

Last season, he led the Big 10 in blocks and was third in rebounding and FG%. Unlike fellow athletic big, Andre Drummond, Meyers actually has an offensive game. Like his strength, it will need to develop, but this has the potential to be very good.

Non Blazer Draft Thoughts.

Everyone seems to love the Hornets selection of Austin Rivers, but I'm not one of them. He is an undersized shooting guard, and while that is fine and all but that is very similar to Eric Gordan, a key piece in the Chris Paul haul. I don't think either one of these guys can play the point so I am very interested to see how that dynamic plays out.