After every draft, no matter the sport, expert and talking heads will
come out with their grades. This concept is funny to me because, unless
I'm missing something, one cannot see the future. For example, let's
look back at the 2001 NBA draft. The Washington Wizards received a B
from
Sport Illustrated
for Kwame Brown. Minnesota walked away with an A- for Loren Woods.
Meanwhile the Hawks get an A for trading away the chance to draft Pau
Gasol for Shareef Abdul-Rahim. The Grizzlies somehow got Pau Gasol and
Shane Battier and wind up with a B- for their efforts.
A year later,
ESPN gave
the Bulls an A for Jay Williams, Roger Mason Jr and Lonnie Baxter. The
Cavs managed a D despite picking up Carlos Boozer. I could go on and on
with examples, but that would be incredibly boring. Instead, I'm just
going to look at who the Blazers picked up in the draft and look at how
they might fit in. I won't attempt to grade it before they hit the
court, just like teachers don't trade papers before looking at the
student's answers.
Damion Lillard.
This might be one of the worst kept secret ever. It seemed that every Portland media outlet predicted it,
national media predicted it;
Paul Allen even had dinner with him. The pick itself made a ton of
sense. This past season the Blazers were plagued with poor point guard
play, or rather, really poor play by everyone not named LaMarcus
Aldridge. Last season they traded popular but aging point guard Andre
Miller for Raymond Felton and drafted Duke point guard Nolan Smith.
Raymond Felton was, to put it simply, a disaster. He came into camp out
of shape and never played himself into shape. His play showed marked
improvement after Nate McMillian was fired, but his PER still the worst
in his career. His assists were down, his field goal shooting was down
and his three point shooting was down. Rookie Nolan Smith didn't provide
much in the way of depth. His PER was a meager 7.8, he shot under 40%
from the field and under 30% from downtown.
With Nolan Smith the
only point guard on the roster, it was clear that that was a position of
need. To make the selection even easier for the Blazers, he
absolutely nailed
his private workout with the team. The upside to this pick is clear;
the guy has good size for his position, very athletic and a terrific
shooter. Matt Kamalsky of Draft Express did a
statistical analysis of Lillard:
Damian
Lillard on the other hand, looks extremely good in this analysis and
ranks exceptionally across the board, finishing second in overall
efficiency (1.142 PPP) despite using 21.1 possessions per-game (1st).
Getting to the line on 18.7% of his possessions (4th) and scoring 1.176
point per-jump shot (1.176)...The
most efficient guard in pick and roll (1.039 PP), spot-up (1.388), and
isolation off screen situations (1.324), Lillard dominates most
categories in this study. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of
Lillard's showing on paper is the paltry 9.8% turnover rate he posted
despite teams game planning to stop him on a nightly basis.
Detractors
of the pick will note the poor level of play Lillard had going against
Sky Conference foes, a conference that had less prospects than North
Carolina in this draft. His age is another factor; while most players in
this draft and 19 and 20, Damion will be 22 by the time the season
starts. Is it a huge difference? No, but it does shorten the learning
curve at a tough position to master at the NBA level. A knock on him is
his passing ability, but one might be able to use the bad conference
argument here and say he didn't have the team mates to pass to.
Meyers Leonard
Another
glaring weakness for the Blazers was a big. LaMarcus Aldridge is an all
star caliber player, but once you get passed him the cupboard is pretty
bare. Joel Przybilla and Kurt Thomas are nice players, but are limited
with their age in terms of ability and minutes. JJ Hickson had a nice
stretch at the end of the season, but looking at the rest of the year,
you could claim it as an aberration. His defense is rather poor as well.
Craig Smith and Hasheem Thabeet couldn't crack the rotation of team
that was tanking.
While a big was obviously a need, what kind of
big was key. While Aldridge is known as a power forward, he played
center for large portions of the past two seasons and was very
effective. Zach Lowe of Sports Illustrated
argued that the Blazers would be better off with Aldridge as the full time center as appose to the power forward.
Small lineups
1,406.28 minutes
114.6 points per 100 possessions
106.05 points allowed per 100 possessions
Big lineups
1,470.59 minutes
108.1 points per 100 possessions
105.5 points allowed per 100 possessions
While
slightly worse on defense, the team is much improved on offense. If the
Blazers wanted to go this route, then the players that made the most
sense were Thomas Robinson and Jerrod Sullinger. Sullinger's medical
issues took him out of the running and while Thomas Robinson was taken
before the Blazers were on the clock, trading up was certainly a
possibility.
In the end, the Blazers decided to keep Aldridge at
the 4 and take 7'1'' center Meyers Leonard from Illinois. Meyers is very
athletic for a big man, in terms of lateral movement and vertical
jumping. He will need to get stronger, but his length and athleticism is
intriguing.
Last season, he led the Big 10 in blocks and was
third in rebounding and FG%. Unlike fellow athletic big, Andre Drummond,
Meyers actually has an offensive game. Like his strength, it will need
to develop, but this has the potential to be very good.
Non Blazer Draft Thoughts.
Everyone
seems to love the Hornets selection of Austin Rivers, but I'm not one
of them. He is an undersized shooting guard, and while that is fine and
all but that is very similar to Eric Gordan, a key piece in the Chris
Paul haul. I don't think either one of these guys can play the point so I
am very interested to see how that dynamic plays out.
